Posted: Thursday, June 17, 2010
Author: Amy Levine

On Wednesday, the New York Times ran a cover story detailing the growing presence of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) militants in Afghanistan. The article reported that over the past year LeT executed several well-planned assaults against Indian targets in and around Kabul. As only Indian citizens and institutions were targeted, the author concluded the Pakistani group’s expansion into Afghanistan was just another part of the never-ending Kashmiri jihad. While this may be technically true, LeT’s ongoing battle with India is only half the story. The real headline is that over the past few years, Lashkar-e-Taiba has quietly built a truly international organization, with a global jihadist agenda focused not just on India, but on the United States, Israel, and Western Europe as well.

Posted: Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Author: Justin Hefter

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) has just passed its fourth round of Iran sanctions leading reporters and bloggers in the United States to debate the question: how effective will these new sanctions be in deterring Iran from pursuing nuclear weapons? The question they should be asking, however, is what do these new multilateral sanctions mean for the United States? For those paying attention to the debate on Capitol Hill, this new round of multilateral sanctions could provide the final impetus for passing tougher unilateral sanctions legislation.

Sanctions legislation has been on the books since the Iran-Libya Sanctions Act of 1996 (ILSA). The ILSA delegates the State Department with the responsibility of determining whether companies’ activities are in violation of the Iran Sanctions Act. According to a Government Accountability Office (GAO) report published in May 2010, the State Department has failed to investigate and declare a company in violation of the Sanctions Act since 1998. Since then, the New York Times reports that the United States government has awarded over $107 billion in contracts to companies that do business in Iran. Why?

Posted: Tuesday, June 14, 2010
Author: Staff

The Center for Advanced Defense Studies is proud to introduce its newest class of interns who will routinely contribute to the Global Security Monitor throughout the summer while conducting research in one of our ongoing program areas. Drum roll please:

Madeleine Bruml is a senior at Princeton University. As a Politics major, Madeleine has conducted research on security relations between Indonesia and China and targeted killing in the Middle East. She previously worked in the business development office of the international law firm Jones Day. Madeleine is from Cleveland, Ohio.

Amanda Carpenter is a Texas native who moved to Washington in 2005 to attend the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. She is studying Science, Technology, and International Affairs with a focus on Biotechnology and Global Health. While at CADS, she is looking forward to diversifying her understanding of international affairs to include defense and security studies. Since moving to Washington, Amanda has worked with a wide range of charities and nonprofits and will continue to explore networking opportunities with other think tanks and international research organizations during her summer with us.

Ashley Duenas is a junior at Columbia University majoring in psychology. Her interest in creative problem solving began as an interdisciplinary student at the San Francisco Art Institute where her professor was working on a mural project for the wall between Israel and Palestine. In the fall of 2008 she transferred to Columbia University to study behavioral science and continue her research on the politics of memory.

Justin Hefter is studying international security and conflict resolution at Stanford University, and will graduate in 2011. His areas of research have included the media’s role in conflict resolution, and the Iranian nuclear threat. He recently finished a spring internship on Capitol Hill. Justin also writes for the satirical newspaper at Stanford, and in his free time will be performing standup comedy in Washington, DC this summer.

Amy Levine is a graduate student from George Washington University. She is pursuing a Master’s Degree in Security Policy Studies, with a focus on South Asia and the Middle East. She is particularly interested in Pakistan, and is currently attempting to learn Urdu. Amy has a BA in International Relations from Boston University, and is originally from the great city of Chicago.

Vina Seelam is a rising senior at Yale College majoring in Psychology and International Studies. She is excited to be spending her first summer in D.C. here at CADS. Her main research interests are in conflict prevention and resolution and in studying the relationships between emotion, trauma, and psychopathology. She hails from Gilbert, Arizona but loves to travel and has recently enjoyed spending time abroad in Austria, Uganda, and Rwanda.

Posted: Monday, June 7, 2010
Author: Lindsay Vacek

Organisms move as quickly as the vectors that carry and transmit them, and the intense population movements of the modern era have spread viruses and diseases like HIV/AIDS and SARS around the world. However, unlike these relatively new diseases, tuberculosis (TB) co-evolved with humanity and has represented a threat to populations and states throughout human history. Evidence of infection has been found in human remains more than 9,000 years old and the disease has since waxed and waned, sometimes appearing as pandemics or epidemics and producing profound impacts on societies.

The development of the two “front-line” antibiotics in the 1950s – isoniazid and rifampin – slashed the mortality of TB worldwide, particularly in developed countries, and revolutionized states’ abilities to control public health scourges. Today 1/3 of the world population carries TB but the bacilli remain latent in 90% of cases, meaning that the affected person exhibits no symptoms and is not contagious. Even the 1 in 10 TB cases that progress into active TB are now highly treatable through the 6-month administration of the front-line drugs (which still remain the cheapest, most effective anti-TB drugs on the market). Thus while the disease may never be entirely eradicated, it has proven manageable with implementation of appropriate drug therapy and corollary treatment education campaigns backed by public health authorities.

Posted: Thursday, May 6, 2010
Author: Elise Hogan

YouTube, and Google by extension, are embroiled in the ongoing investigation of Faisal Shahzad and his purported link to the Pakistani Taliban after a video was posted to the site Sunday night claiming responsibility for the Times Square bombing. Noah Shachtman at Wired’s Danger Room asked the pressing question today: “should Google try to prevent terrorism?” The prevention of terrorism in this case would be YouTube stepping in to remove inflammatory jihadist videos from the internet. In his post, Shachtman references the blog “The Jawa Room,” which advocates this level of corporate accountability. Shachtman categorizes the author as a “long-time monitor of online jihadists,” and cites an excerpt from Jawa wherein the author writes: “If a certain percentage of Islamist sympathizers are radicalized, in part, online, then it stands to reason that more eyeballs that are exposed to violent Islamist propaganda would eventually translate into more would-be terrorists.” Our analysis questions the benefits of removing material from YouTube that may radicalize viewers and incite terrorism, which is a valid ethical concern, but of questionable practicality.

Posted: Wednesday, April 28, 2010
Author: Andrew Baer

The Standard and Poor’s rating agency relegated Greece’s credit status to “junk” yesterday morning triggering a further decline in the country’s financial stability. At a conference meeting concerning the economic crisis in Greece, International Monetary Fund head Dominique Strauss-Kahn warned of the dangers in delaying aiding Greece and stated that it might “have a lot of consequences on the European Union”. Fears continue to mount as interest rates in Greek hit a 19% high on top of nearly 300 billion Euros of accumulated debt. Many are worried that the situation in Greece may bleed into the still-recovering global market and infect other national economies.

In 2002 Greece abandoned the drachma in favor of the euro in order to ease borrowing to fund high-profile projects such as the 2004 Olympics in Athens. Most of these projects, intended to better the economy, actually went beyond their designated budgets while making far less revenue then was projected. The result was a downturn in the economy and efforts by the government to increase benefits while decreasing taxes in order to comfort the masses and secure political power. For the past several months mass demonstrations against government spending and corruption resulted in destruction of property which only further crippled the Greek economy. Now, having plummeted almost 300 billion Euros into debt, government officials have announced that they wish to access the 30 billion euro emergency fund offered by the European Union.

Posted: Monday, April 26, 2010
Author: Sarah Khederian

With an upcoming US offensive in Kandahar planned for June , we all wonder about the potential of another major military offensive to successfully drive the Taliban out of the province, but fail to take away their legitimacy. In an article advocating a new, holistic approach to winning in Afghanistan , Lt. Gen. William Caldwell and Capt. Mark Hagerott rightly argue that Obama’s troop surge is not enough to rid the country of the Taliban: “This surge of combat power, along with the Marja and Kandahar offensives, will suppress the Taliban infection in the near term, but is only a temporary reprieve. The current high level of U.S. and NATO combat power cannot be maintained forever. Therefore, without a rejuvenated immune system, the infection will come back.” But while Caldwell and Hagerott address the need for Afghan security forces to prevent the “infection” from returning as well as the need to return the “spirit” of Afghanistan to its “tradition of tolerant Islam,” they lack a recommendation to tackle the fundamental issue, the support of the population.

A recent article by Joe Klein in TIME Magazine tells the story of a US Battalion’s efforts to refurbish a local school in the Afghan town of Senjaray just outside of Kandahar. The battalion faced significant local opposition to do so, not because the townspeople didn’t want the school, but because the Taliban still acts as a de facto government for those who view the government in Kabul as illegitimate and corrupt. Klein notes (in a follow-up) that “The Taliban aren't outside agitators here; they are neighbors — not exactly beloved neighbors, given their propensity for violence and peremptory taxation, but more trustworthy than a deeply corrupt Afghan government and much more familiar than the foreign troops.”

Posted: Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Author: Andrew Baer

Saharan states Mali, Niger, Algeria, and Mauritania have recently released statements declaring that they will open a joint command headquarters in Tamanrasset to combat the growing threat of radical terrorist groups operating in the region. The Joint Military Staff Committee, as it is titled, will focus on facilitating increased cooperation among these four Sahel states to curb terrorism, kidnappings, and trafficking. Western and US officials have consistently pressured these governments to coordinate counter-operations lest the Sahara become a safe haven for high-profile militant groups such as al-Qaeda. In the past year alone al-Qaeda affiliates in the Islamic Maghreb have been charged with the execution of a British hostage, the shooting of a US aid worker, and the kidnapping of an Italian couple within the Sahara region.

Though military officials in Niger informed the Reuters news agency that the four countries plan on gravitating “towards joint military operations against terrorism, kidnappings, and the trafficking of drugs and weapons,” the powers and operational capabilities of this new joint command have not been clearly outlined. Likewise, skepticism remains about whether or not these four Saharan states will seriously commit and be able to effectively coordinate in counter-operations against terrorist cells in the region. The US launched the Trans-Sahara Counterterrorism Initiative beginning in 2005 as an addendum to the Pan Sahel Initiative in 2001 to enhance Saharan state’s security and stability capacities in the fight against terrorism though critics continue to question whether or not this has actually been effective in overall counter-terror operations.

Posted: Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Author: Amna Ali

Serious speculations from the international community over Syria smuggling SCUD missiles to Hezbollah in Lebanon led the State Department yesterday to summon a top Syrian diplomat for a talk. If the weapon allegations are true, this could be a detrimental step backwards in the attempt to improve U.S. – Syrian diplomatic ties and could also weaken the Middle East peace process. Syria’s president, Bashar Assad , embraced reality when he stated, “I will be happy to discuss peace with him [President Obama], but there is the influence of the lobbyists and other players.” When discussing the U.S. and Syria, it is impossible to view the bilateral relationship as not being always heavily influenced by considerations of Iran and Israel.

Since the 2005 assassination of Lebanon’s prime minister, Rafik Hariri, and the withdrawal of the U.S. ambassador from Damascus, the U.S’s relationship with Syria has been deeply strained. While recent attempts have been made to appoint a new U.S. ambassador, the Senate has not approved the nomination of Robert Ford, and SCUD missile allegations will surely slow the process down even further. Additionally, while Obama’s administration is motivated to strengthen ties with Syria in hopes of weakening its relationship with Iran, there is belief that the possible transfer of weapons into Lebanon is Syria’s way of demonstrating the strength of its ties with Iran.

Posted: Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Author: Andrew Baer

A full six days after the volcanic eruption in Iceland and flights in Europe still remain virtually frozen. More than 20 countries continue to maintain closed airspace due to the threat of ash and debris. The international airline association has begun to criticize the European governments for their mishandling of the natural crisis while officials are growing weary of the financial consequences. IATA Chief Giovanni Bisignani noted that this was “a European embarrassment and a European mess” which has left millions of passengers stranded and crippled the airline industry economically.

British Airlines have estimated a loss of 150 million dollars since the crisis began while Air France reported losing upwards 200 million dollars. European airlines are asking European governments to provide monetary compensation or risk a financial drought while European Union officials refuse to compromise passenger safety. BA Chief Executive Willie Walsh flew aboard a 747 test flight through the cloud of volcanic ash on Sunday and declared the risk “minimal.” Some airports in Eastern Europe and Spain have recently reopened and offered to provide layover flights. French railway companies have also reduced fare rates to try and mitigate the situation. But after nearly a week-long standstill it seems the natural disaster which has clogged the continent’s air transportation may impact more than just passengers and the commercial airline industry.