Posted: Thursday, July 8, 2010
Author: Amanda Carpenter

You remember DARPA, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency of “gay bomb” and terror gambling fame. As the “mad scientists” of the Department of Defense, the agency uses its roughly $3 billion budget to pursue “high risk, high pay-off” projects. While many of the agency’s less offensive projects are intriguing, the Senate Armed Services Committee has recommended trimming their 2011 budget by $143.4 million (down to $3 billion). This slap on the wrist can be attributed to concern that too little of DARPA’s research is translating into real world advantages for troops on the ground. The same thing happened in 2008 when Congress cut their 2009 budget by $130 million due to “poor execution” of previous projects. As if that weren’t bad enough, now Aviation Week is reporting that U.S. military and intelligence agencies are taking back the reins on the controversial cru de gra of the defense world, the National Cyber Range. The initiative is part of the interagency Comprehensive National Cybersecurity Initiative (CNCI). "Ultimately, the NCR will provide fully automated range and test management suites to test and validate leap-ahead cyber research technologies and systems, and provide vision for new computer security research directions for the community" according to DARPA Program Director Michael VanPutte. However, the agency’s timeline for the project, five to seven years, was unacceptable to military and intelligence agencies. According to the Aviation Week article, these potential customers also “want a bigger role in determining how and how much they could use the ranges.”

Posted: Thursday, July 8, 2010
Author: Vina Seelam

Acting on intelligence provided by the Drug Enforcement Administration, Ecuadorean police seized a submarine capable of transporting tons of cocaine at a jungle shipyard near the Colombian border on Friday. The diesel electric-powered submarine is equipped with a conning tower, a periscope, and an air-conditioning system and measures almost 100 feet long. According to the DEA’s Andean regional director, Jay Bergman, “It is the first fully functional, completely submersible submarine for transoceanic voyages that we have ever found.” Although the police were able to sequester the submarine before it departed with any shipments, officials are not certain that this is the only “narco sub” out there. This discovery sheds light on one of the novel and innovative ways by which drug traffickers are attempting to evade law enforcement officials.

Prior to this find, all the underwater vessels that had been captured and implicated in illegal drug transport across the Pacific Ocean were semi-submersibles. In contrast, the submarine discovered in Ecuador last week is unique in its capacity for complete submersion, which would allow it to escape radar and heat-seeking detection by drug-interdiction aircraft. Ecuadorean police estimated that the vessel can hold about 10 metric tons of cargo and a crew of five or six people. The submarine is believed to be designed to travel thousands of miles, easily capable of reaching the North American coast.

Posted: Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Author: Justin Hefter

The Washington Post reported early this week that the skies above Washington, DC have become more dangerous as inexperienced air traffic controllers take over for a retiring generation. There have been 22 reported near-collisions in the past six months above Washington DC, because veteran controllers are walking out the door. The same problem can be seen in the field of nuclear science, where the most experienced scientists will be retiring in the next few years, with very few people coming through the ranks to replace them. While an inexperienced air traffic control labor force could cause a plane crash, a young and inexperienced pool of nuclear energy personnel could lead to something much worse.

Posted: Wednesday, July 7th, 2010
Author: Amy Levine

Last Thursday, two suicide bombers attacked Data Darbur, the most important Sufi shrine in Pakistan. The bombers detonated their explosives during peak worshipping hours, leaving at least 42 people dead and over 175 injured. While the death toll and religious significance of this site alone would make it a devastating attack, the impact was intensified by the shrine’s location: the Data Darbur is in Lahore, Pakistan’s culture capital and second largest city.

According to Abu Muqawama, this attack is a “big, big deal” and could signal an even more worrisome prospect: a Taliban campaign to foment large-scale sectarian warfare throughout Pakistan. Rifts already exist between many of Pakistan’s religious and ethnic groups. Unlike most Muslim countries, an escalation of violence in Pakistan would not revolve around a Sunni-Shia conflict. Instead, a full-out sectarian war would split the majority Sunni community of Pakistan in two. Most Pakistani Sunnis practice Barelvism, a tradition largely inspired by Sufism. The majority of militant groups, however, follow a puritanical form of Sunni Islam known as Deobandism. Adherents of this faith include the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban, Jaish-e-Mohammad, Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, and Sipah-e-Sahaba Pakistan. Many of the key tenets of the Barelvi tradition, such as shrine worship, are anathema to the Deobandi militant groups. Over the past several years, these organizations have made a concerted effort to attack all other forms of Islam practiced in Pakistan, targeting Barelvi, Shia, and Ahmadi institutions.

Posted: Friday, July 02, 2010
Author: Amanda Carpenter

Well, pseudo-seriously. It is Friday after all, and although I initially laughed off Foreign Policy’sexcerpt from Prof. Daniel Drezner’s forthcoming book on the topic, recent chatter has compelled me to take a second look. The idea was contrived I’m sure in no small part with the objective of selling books; Princeton University Press will release Drezner’s Theories of International Politics and Zombies later this year. But don’t write the attention-getting name off too quickly. The surprising discussion popping up around this hypothetical menace is more than simple amusement.

Posted: Friday, July 02, 2010
Author: Amy Levine

Last week’s attention-grabbing New York Times article on the Haqqani network raised many questions about Pakistani-Afghan relations and the future of American operations in the region. Unintentionally, the New York Times article makes one point abundantly clear: General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani is running the show in Pakistan. Scour the piece for a single mention of Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari, Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani, or even Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi – you won’t find one, although this article is about a significant shift in Pakistani foreign policy. Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Kayani, with the help of Inter-Service Intelligence (ISI) Chief Ahmad Shuja Pasha, has managed to sideline the entire civilian leadership and take complete control of the decision-making process, particularly on issues involving Afghanistan. Offers to broker talks between Karzai and elements of the Afghan Taliban and Haqqani network show Kayani’s increasing ownership of Pakistan’s Afghan policy. Not only is Kayani the most powerful man in Pakistan, but he may also play the decisive role in the success (or failure) of the United States’ war effort.

Posted: Friday, July 02, 2010
Author: Madeleine Bruml

More than a year after President Obama issued an executive order to close the detention center in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, nearly 200 detainees remain at the facility. Amidst legal constraints and security concerns, uncertainty over the detainees’ futures impede Guantanamo’s closure. Considering the international outcry over conditions at the facility and the radicalization of repatriated Guantanamo detainees, the U.S. should examine different approaches for dealing with suspected terrorists. Foreign governments’ terrorist rehabilitation and deradicalization programs offer an alterative to the indefinite detention and human rights abuses reported at Guantanamo. These programs merit further attention as a basis for comparison with America’s treatment of suspected terrorists. Over the coming weeks, I plan on examining the efficacy of terrorist rehabilitation programs across the globe, including Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Libya, Singapore, and the Philippines. Each case study will include a brief overview of the country’s terrorist threat and a discussion and evaluation of the country’s rehabilitation and deradicalization efforts. While I acknowledge differences in domestic politics, culture, and demographics, I will identify aspects of the programs that can feasibly transfer to the United States. Based on my identification of best practices; I intend to propose a rehabilitation program conducive to conditions in the United States.

Neither indefinite detainment at Guantanamo nor lenient rehabilitation programs appear to adequately address the problems surrounding captured terrorist suspects. The countries combating terrorism, including Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, and Singapore need to examine and share best practices to find an appropriate balance between justice and rehabilitation. It is clear that some detainees could benefit from reeducation and counseling, whereas others may be intractable in their extremism. Greater understanding and evaluation of foreign rehabilitation and detention programs will help the U.S. avoid another Guantanamo and subvert future attacks.

Posted: Thursday, July 1, 2010
Author: Vina Seelam

The Democratic Republic of Congo celebrated the 50th anniversary of its independence from Belgian rule yesterday with much pomp. But do the circumstances really warrant such festivities? Joe Bavier argues in Foreign Policy that Congo has not made much notable progress since receiving its independence; it has been plagued by instability, repression under autocratic leadership, and a regional war with an alarmingly high death count. The festivities, although boasting the presence of UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon and King Albert II of Belgium, are an unconvincing attempt by the Congolese government to conceal the problems plaguing the nation. Western nations can encourage the resolution of some of these problems by refusing to provide funding for governmental abuses.

Bavier likens Congo’s current president, Joseph Kabila, to his infamously corrupt predecessor, Mobutu Sese Seko. In 2006, Kabila won Congo’s first democratic election in 40 years. However, the legitimacy of this election came into question when he ordered the killing of over 100 members of a sect that accused Kabila of rigging the election in a western region. Kabila has been implicated in a number of human rights violations and seems to have Mobutu’s penchant for silencing his opponents. The recent murder of human rights activist Floribert Chebeya has been attributed to Congo’s leadership and has exacerbated international worries about governance in Congo.

Posted: Wednesday, June 30, 2010
Author: Amanda Carpenter

It is easy to be distracted by the more obvious features of a G20 summit, such as world leaders sketching utopian platforms and rubbing elbows with fellow über-power brokers. However, there are subtler and more significant lessons to be gleaned from these meetings. Though globalization and an increasingly interdependent world economy are nothing new, the annual summit gives us a reason to reassess some broader trends than those that typically dominate our attention. Yes, it is a good thing that the G8 has begun to focus on development and leave the global economy discussions to the more inclusive G20. Yes, the G20 should work to construct more concrete plans for solving the ongoing financial crisis. But we should also take a moment to appreciate the considerable shift currently taking place among world economies, specifically, the impact of current Western powers neglecting the coming post-information age.

The rising stars at the G20 are not the virtual economies of yesteryear. They are the less glamorous, but far more relevant and effective, manufacturing, energy, and agriculture based economies. IHS Global Insight, a US-based economics consultancy, recently published a report showing that China will dethrone the U.S. from its 110-year reign as the world’s leading factory production country by 2011. Outside the BRIC countries, South Africa, South Korea, and Turkey are also rising on the back of manufacturing. Australia and Canada, whose economies run on the basics such as the production of raw materials, have proven more resilient than other Western nations during the financial crisis. Of course the information industry is still important, but it is much more outsourceable than the extraction of natural resources and utilization of agriculture-friendly land.

Posted: Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Author: Amy Levine

Last week, the New York Times ran a story detailing Pakistan’s new and enthusiastic efforts to broker a peace deal in Afghanistan. The boldest part of this plan was Pakistani Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani’s claim that he could deliver the Haqqani network, one of the most dangerous Afghan insurgent groups, into a power-sharing government. This pledge is in addition to his earlier promises to bring Mullah Omar and other hard-line Taliban operatives to the negotiating table. While previously the United States had encouraged Pakistani involvement in Afghanistan, American officials may now be eating their words. This was the New York Times succinct summation of Pakistan’s recent maneuvering: “Pakistan is exploiting the troubled United States military effort in Afghanistan to drive home a political settlement with Afghanistan that would give Pakistan important influence there but is likely to undermine United States interests.” (This author would replace the words “is likely to undermine” with “would cause irreparable harm to.”)

An Afghan government where Sirajuddin Haqqani and Mullah Omar are key players is completely unlikely to force out Osama bin Laden, a man they have jointly protected for nine years. Even if these claims by Kayani are exaggerations, as many American officials are saying, it highlights an important truth about America’s relationship with Pakistan: this was always a marriage of convenience, rather than a long-lasting alliance. Pakistan’s goal has been (and will continue to be) an Afghanistan free of Indian influence - there was never any guarantee that also meant an Afghanistan free from Al Qaeda. As a sovereign country, it is only natural that Pakistan would pursue its own interests before that of its allies. But the United States overlooked this obvious agenda, to its own detriment.