Posted: Thursday, July 22, 2010
Author: Amy Levine

On Sunday, the Washington Times ran a lengthy story on Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s steadily deteriorating health, reporting that the 81-year old leader is dying of cancer. The prospect of Mubarak’s death in the next year or two has prompted immense speculation on what Egypt will look like after his thirty-year rule ends. While many interesting scenarios have been put on the table, the most likely prospect is a relatively peaceful transition of power to Mubarak’s second eldest son, Gamal. A smooth transition to Gamal is the best possible outcome for the United States, as it means a continuation of the current close relationship between Cairo and Washington.

Rumors that Gamal, a successful investment banker, is his father’s chosen heir have been rampant in Cairo since 2000. In the past few years, Gamal has made a concerted effort to raise his public profile, gaining a senior position in his father’s National Democratic Party and placing allies in key economic posts in the cabinet. While Gamal has strong support among the upper class and business elites, he lacks the strong military background of previous Egyptian leaders. A few have speculated that this lack of military training could open the door for other successors, such as the intelligence chief, Omar Suleiman.

Posted: Thursday, July 22, 2010
Author: Justin Hefter
CNN reported yesterday that masked gunmen raided a Russian hydro-electric power plant killing the two guards, setting off four explosive charges, and destroying two of the three hydro power generators. While this incident may seem like an isolated case of Russian terrorism, the attack highlights an extremely important international security concern – namely, the lack of security at the world’s energy plants. The Russians apparently had only two guards protecting the entire hydro-electric power plant, which allowed the terrorists to attack and get away unscathed. The attacks on the hydro-electric power plant were terrible, but if a similar attack were to occur at a nuclear plant, the consequences could be catastrophic. While we would hope that security is better at our nuclear plants, investigations have found that nuclear plants around the world have serious security flaws.

Posted: Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Author: Ashley Duenas

Over a dozen journalists have spent two years researching the business of intelligence agencies in Washington. Their findings resulted in what is referred to as Manic Monday—The Washington Post’s release of Top Secret America. The Post’s report questions the un-sustainable growth of the $75 billion dollar intelligence industry post 9-11. According to the report, this system begins with contracting operations, then under clandestine analysis (where information often isn’t shared) information is regurgitated and wasteful. What authors Dana Priest and William Arkin highlight is a problem of information management in the Age of Information. After all, as Robert Leonhard, professor of Military Science at West Virginia University, has said, “Information technologies are among the most expensive in the military realm, because they exist only as a system of systems.”

Posted: Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Author: Ashley Duenas

According to Al Jazeera, the Sunni extremist group Jundallah claimed responsibility for last Thursday’s suicide attacks in Zahedan, Iran. In an e-mail sent to the Al-Arabiya radio station, Jundallah said the event was a response to the recent execution of one its leaders, Abdolmalek Rigi. The New York Times reported at least twenty-six people died and nearly 300 were injured from the explosions. Jundallah claims to be fighting for the rights of the Sunni Baluch minority, and accuses Iran's Shia-dominated government of persecution. However, the Iranian government has shifted its attention away from these grievances and now blames the West for Jundallah’s attacks. Instead of taking responsibility, the Voice of the Islamic Republic of Iran Radio blames the US for Thursday’s suicide attack, speculating that the Jundallah network is supported by countries with foreign interests in Iran.

Posted: Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Author: Vina Seelam

The U.S. falls prey to hundreds of thousands of attempted cyber attacks every day, according to Cybercom commander General Keith Alexander. The government’s information systems are under constant attack from hackers, terrorist and criminal groups, and foreign states. Due to an inadequate supply of cyberwarriors to defend against infiltrations and the subsequent inability to keep up with rapidly-evolving cyber technology, our government is not well-equipped to combat these security threats. Even with an unprecedented number of workers in the intelligence and counterterrorism communities since 9/11, we are grossly understaffed in the cybersecurity sector. Our focus right now should be on training a generation of skilled cyberspecialists who will be able to innovate ways to fortify our defenses against online threats.

Posted: Monday, July 19, 2010
Author: Vina Seelam

The Arabic-language TV network Al Arabiya aired a video Wednesday of Faisal Shahzad, the Pakistani-American who took credit for an attempted bombing in Times Square in May. In this “martyrdom video,”Shahzad cites the war in Afghanistan as a reason to attack the U.S. and asserts his intentions to avenge“all the mujahideen, the fighters and the weak and oppressed Muslims.” He specifically mentions seeking revenge against the U.S. for the killings of Baitullah Mehsud, a former leader in the Pakistani Taliban, and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the former head of al Qaeda in Iraq. Shahzad’s comments, which have spread to a wide audience due to the media’s coverage of the video, highlight an emerging trend of homegrown terrorists who are expressing their political grievances through extremism and violence.

Posted: Thursday, July 15, 2010
Author: Amy Levine

Expectations are low for today’s meeting between Indian External Affairs Minister SM Krishna and Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi, despite being the highest level talks between the rival nations since the 2008 Mumbai attacks. The recent uptick in violence in Kashmir, and the related issue of state-sponsored terrorism, has dampened enthusiasm that the talks will achieve any sort of breakthrough. Though a peaceful solution to the Kashmir conflict is critical for any type of regional stability, including a lasting peace in Afghanistan, its centrality is often ignored by Western policymakers. The United States and its allies must make a concerted effort to cut through Pakistani and Indian rhetoric on the issue and push both sides towards a comprehensive bilateral dialogue.

The sixty-year old fight over the disputed territories of Jammu and Kashmir is the major source of animosity between nuclear-powered India and Pakistan. Confusion during partition has led both states to claim the Muslim-majority area as their own, leading to two wars and Pakistani backing for anti-India militants, such as Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT). Lost in the shuffle are the desires of Kashmiri citizens, the majority of whom want an independent state, though calls for secession are largely ignored by both India and Pakistan. In recent weeks, however, Kashmiri citizens have become increasingly vocal in their desire for independence from India. Protests organized by stone-wielding citizens have become a frequent occurrence in the Kashmir Valley, leading to the deaths of at least 14 civilians this month at the hands of Indian police and security forces.

Posted: Tuesday, July 13, 2010
Author: Amy Levine

Somali insurgent group Al-Shabaab has officially claimed responsibility for Sunday night’s coordinated bombings in the Ugandan capital of Kampala. The explosions destroyed an Ethiopian restaurant and popular rugby club, killing at least 74 soccer fans as they gathered to watch the World Cup final. Although Al-Shabaab has frequently threatened states that support Somalia’s weak federal government, this is the organization’s first attack beyond Somali soil. This high-profile assault signals a disturbing rise in capability of the Al-Qaeda linked group, and has created a widespread fear that similar attacks could occur in Burundi, Ethiopia, and Kenya. Overnight, Al-Shabaab has shifted from a contained presence in Somalia to a regional, and possibly global, threat. In short, these bombings represent a complete game-changer for the region.

This attack was specifically timed and targeted to weaken the resolve of the Somali federal government’s allies and preempt other states from militarily entering the fray. Despite the introduction of 5,000 Ugandan and Burundian troops (under the umbrella of the African Union peacekeeping force in Somalia, AMISOM), the federal government has failed to extend its control beyond a few blocks in Mogadishu. The government is so weak that it could not hold even this small amount of territory without AMISOM’s help. To aid the failing mission, African Union forces have been calling for a stronger international presence in Somalia and will make a formal request to the United Nations at a summit in Kampala next month. This attack on Ugandan citizens is an attempt to discourage other countries from joining AMISOM and to increase the cost of fighting for those already involved. Al-Shabaab spokesman, Ali Mohamoud Rage, explicitly outlined this strategy, saying “We are sending a message to every country who is willing to send troops to Somalia that they will face attacks on their territory…Burundi will face similar attacks soon, if they don’t withdraw.”

Posted: Monday, July 12, 2010
Author: Ashley Duenas

Islamic extremist attacks are not slowing down in Indonesia. Time magazine recently reported an incident of vandalism on a public sculpture by the Indonesian Islamic group, Forum Umat Islam, (aka Islamic Community Forum). According to the group, the sculpture was pornographic because it portrayed three women each wearing a traditional sarong and was a depiction of the holy trinity. Concerns about “Christianization” in Indonesia prompted the group to demolish the sculpture because the work of art was perceived as un-Islamic. Indonesia consists mostly of moderate Muslims and is generally accepting of other religions. This tolerance of religion, however, extends to violent religious groups like the Islamic Community Forum and Islamic Defenders Front (FPI). These groups have been reported as smashing bars, attacking transvestites and intimidating minority sects with bamboo clubs and stones. While the Indonesian government has publicly renounced these acts, they have been ineffective in eradicating this violence by Islamic radicals (FPI). Supporters of the arts who have been victimized by the FPI, as well as activists and legislators, are calling on the government to take harsher action against Islamic extremist fringe groups.

Posted: Thursday, July 8, 2010
Author: Amy Levine

Separately, Pakistan and China are constant topics of conversation in many policy circles these days, but the relationship between these two critical countries is rarely discussed. Though it may surprise some, these countries enjoy extremely close relations. In fact, many in Islamabad consider China to be Pakistan’s most important and steadfast ally. (GMF) With Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari currently in Beijing (his fifth trip to China since taking office in 2008) and the recently announced Chinese-Pakistani nuclear deal, it is an excellent time to reflect on the strategic implications of this interesting alliance.
Common regional concerns and the promise of economic benefits have united these countries since the creation of the People’s Republic of China in 1951.

Throughout the years, China has provided Pakistan with military equipment and nuclear technology that Islamabad has then utilized in its never-ending battle with India. China sees a strong Pakistan as a counterweight to a rising India, which allows Beijing to remain the sole regional hegemon. China invests heavily in Pakistan, particularly in its lucrative energy, infrastructure, and mining sectors. As Pakistan’s economy worsens, China’s economic assistance has become vital to keeping the country afloat. Recently, the two countries have increased their counterterrorism cooperation, with Pakistan promising to aid China in battling Uighur militants.